What political alignment will deliver Kogi State in 2012?
As a fall back to the keenly contested governorship primaries earlier in the year, Alhaji Jibrin Isah (EchoCho) from Kogi East (Igala) carried the day with 361 votes against his closest rival, Alhaji Abdul-Razak Kutepa, ‘originally’ from Kogi East (Bassa-Nge) but he claims he is from Lokoja (Kogi West). The politics of Kogi State can […]
As a fall back to the keenly contested governorship primaries earlier in the year, Alhaji Jibrin Isah (EchoCho) from Kogi East (Igala) carried the day with 361 votes against his closest rival, Alhaji Abdul-Razak Kutepa, ‘originally’ from Kogi East (Bassa-Nge) but he claims he is from Lokoja (Kogi West).
The politics of Kogi State can also be described as politics of “convenience” alongside “numbers”, “tide” and “proxy”. For the purpose of this analysis, I will exclude the Ebira of Kogi Central, not on the strength of irrelevance, but because they are the proponents of this new political “order” (politics of convenience) with the speakership of the House of Assembly occupied by Hon. Abdullahi Bello. This is a welcome development.
The Igala play politics of “numbers” owing to their numerical strength that constitute 679,373 (51.43%) registered voters in the state. The Okun constitute 320,363 (24.25%) of the state voting population and they play politics of “tide”. The Igala have always ridden on the support of my people, the Okun, to victory in previous elections, but with a promissory understanding that has only been fulfilled by Governor Ibrahim Idris administration.
The Ebira used to play politics by “proxy”. This means the Ebira hide under the shadow of the Igalas to remain relevant (deputizing) with 321,185 (24.32%) of registered voters in the state, 0.07% slightly higher than the Okuns. It is also a fact that during elections, the Ebira do not vote for Igala candidates, regardless of the combination. They would rather cast their votes for a candidate of theirs for inexplicable reasons. But it has now changed to politics of “convenience” for the Ebira because of the emergence of the Jibrin Isah (Igala) and Clarence Olafemi (Okun) combination in the recent gubernatorial primaries, which is a disconnect from the norm of Igala-Ebira combination during previous elections. i.e., 1999-2003, Abubakar Audu (Igala)-Patrick Adaba (Ebira) and 2003 to date, Ibrahim Idris (Igala) and Philip Salawu (Ebira). We in Okun land believe that, the Jibrin/Olafemi combination is a positive step towards the realization of our agitation for power shift.
The implication of the speakership of the House of Assembly currently occupied by an Ebira man is that there is realignment in the political hierarchy in the state. And as it stands, the Igala have remained on top, closely followed by the Okun and the Ebira. Then, one might want to ask of what value is there in the Igala-Ebira combination that Prince Abubakar Audu is fielding? Will he “retreat” to pick an Okun man reflect the present realities? Time, only time will tell.
In the last primaries, Jibrin Isah clinched the gubernatorial ticket with 361 votes to beat his closest challenger Abdul-Razak Kutepa (303 votes). Abdul-Razak Kutepa was quoted recently as saying “I am going to contest the governorship elections in 2012 and this time around, I am going to emerge winner”.
The rational thing for the PDP to do is to allow the ticket of Jibrin Isah to stand because, Abubakar Audu (Igala) then of the All Nigeria Peoples Party and now of the Action Congress of Nigeria is waiting to cash in on PDP’s undoing. This is also my thinking. But beyond my thinking, Audu has once again promised to return power to the Okun after his constitutionally mandated four years, which I don’t think the Okun will fall for, this time round. This is also my thinking.
In the event that the PDP fields an un-popular candidate, there might be “protest” votes, especially from the youths and the intellectual community in the state. Not only that, recent figures indicates that the highest number of registered voters reported by any local government in Kogi State comes from Dekina local government and Jibrin Isah is from Dekina local government and highly revered for his philanthropic initiatives all around the state, even before he ventured into politics.
The people of Kogi State are anxious for change and not just that, but a paradigm shift in form of a technocrat as governor.
In an interview, Jibrin Isah said about his ambition: “My decision to offer myself for the highest leadership position in Kogi State is firmly anchored on a deep introspection about the challenges ahead. It is, therefore, a conscious decision that is informed about a clear mission and vision on the basis of which citizens of Kogi State will demand accountability. The mission and vision seek to offer a road map to a future of hope against the backdrop of the failure of successive leadership in Kogi State, the consistent betrayal of the hopes of the common man, the repeated but tragic experience of mal-governance, resulting in the tension between the “revolution of rising expectations” that accompanied the creation of Kogi State in 1991 and the “revolution of rising frustration” that was the order, before Governor Idris came on a salvage mission in 2003”.
In all, I think the battle will be between Jibrin Isah Echocho, his brothers, and Abdul-Razak Kutepa. But in politics anything can happen.
Thomas wrote this piece from Lokoja, Kogi State. [email protected]