What you need to know about Iran-US nuclear negotiations holding today

Iran and the United States have made significant progress in their discussions over Tehran’s nuclear programme, with the second round of Oman-mediated talks concluding in Rome on Saturday. This follows an initial session held a week earlier in Muscat, the Omani capital. Later today, technical discussions are set to begin in Oman, marking a crucial […]

Iran and the United States have made significant progress in their discussions over Tehran’s nuclear programme, with the second round of Oman-mediated talks concluding in Rome on Saturday. This follows an initial session held a week earlier in Muscat, the Omani capital. Later today, technical discussions are set to begin in Oman, marking a crucial next step in the negotiations. According to Al Jazeera, these discussions will focus on sanctions relief, Iran’s nuclear programme, and regional security, laying the groundwork for further high-level meetings aimed at moving closer to an agreement. The question remains: Will these talks lead to a breakthrough? While officials have expressed optimism, the complexity of the issues at hand means that a final agreement is far from guaranteed. What are your thoughts on the likelihood of a deal?

 

Here’s what you need to know:

The technical talks

Later today, working-level experts from both sides will begin discussing the inner workings of sanctions relief and how that relates to Iran’s nuclear programme.

The sanctions regimes imposed on Iran are complex and multilayered, and each layer has to be linked to a specific action or guarantee Iran is being asked to undertake about its nuclear programme.

Three days after these talks, another round of high-level talks will be held in Muscat.

The last two rounds were indirect talks between Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff, passing messages through Omani Foreign Minister Badr Albusaidi.

How did we get here?

Officials are optimistic about the progress on talks that started with US President Donald Trump threatening Tehran with attacks if it did not negotiate.

In early March, Trump said he had written to Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, asking for talks on the country’s nuclear programme.

But the letter was sent via the United Arab Emirates, and UAE presidential diplomatic adviser Anwar Gargash delivered it nearly a week after Trump’s announcement.

After saying Trump’s letter had not been received yet, Khamenei declared Iran would not accept the “demands” of “bully governments”.

But something thawed in the normally icy relations, and Iran agreed to indirect talks after Omani mediation.

Interestingly, Oman was also the mediator for the initial secret talks between Iran and the US that led to the JCPOA.

Is Iran aiming to develop a nuclear weapon?

Iran has not indicated that it plans to build a nuclear weapon. The supreme leader has issued a religious decree years ago prohibiting the pursuit of such a weapon.

When Trump’s threats escalated, Khamenei said if Iran chooses to pursue a nuclear weapon, nobody could stop it. However, he has not reversed his decree prohibiting it.

Any deal limiting Iran’s nuclear programme

There was. The 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) was a diplomatic win for former US President Barack Obama’s administration.

Under the terms of the deal, Iran committed to regular inspections of its nuclear energy programme in return for relief on some Western sanctions.

However, criticising the agreement during his first term, Trump withdrew from the JCPOA in May 2018 and imposed punitive sanctions on Iran.

What US wants

One thing that has come up in discussions is how much enriched uranium Iran has and at what level.

Enriched uranium is used for nuclear energy reactors, but that is usually enriched to between 3 and 5 per cent.

According to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Iran has 274.8kg (605.8 pounds) of uranium enriched up to 60 per cent, lower than the 90 per cent enrichment needed for a weapon.

Under the JCPOA, Iran could enrich uranium up to 3.67 per cent and keep a uranium stockpile of 300kg (661 pounds).

Witkoff has said 3.67 percent would be an acceptable level of uranium enrichment, which is the same as agreed on in the JCPOA under Obama.

Why Trump wants another deal

It is hard to read Trump’s mind.

But going by what he has said, he sees himself as a dealmaker willing to talk to anyone, even if he ends up with a deal similar to the last one.

He was supposedly influenced by Israel’s opinion when he said the JCPOA was a “bad deal” and left it in 2018.

Israel has long seen Iran as a foe, claiming it is secretly pursuing a bomb and is a bigger regional threat than Israel’s increasingly violent occupation of Palestine.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was so invested that he dedicated part of his 2012 UN General Assembly address to drawing a cartoon bomb with “red lines” through it, to illustrate his point.

Since international inspections began, there has been consensus that Iran was sticking to the deal, although it has increased its enrichment levels since Trump’s withdrawal from the JCPOA.

Is there going to be a deal

It is too early to say. There are promising signs, such as reports that the Iranian and US teams were in the same room for at least part of the second round of negotiations, and the progress made in technical talks.

Araghchi, according to the semiofficial Tasnim news agency, said: “We succeeded in reaching a better understanding on certain principles and goals.”

He posted on Saturday that “for now, optimism may be warranted but only with a great deal of caution”.

Iran has insisted that the US guarantee it will adhere to this agreement. For its part, the US has insisted that Iran halt the uranium enrichment it claims is necessary to run its nuclear energy programme.