When a coalition begins to unravel

When I started this series of ADC Coalition and the Road to 2027, one of the central questions was not whether a coalition could be formed, but whether it could survive. At the time, the alignment of major political figures created a sense of momentum. There was curiosity, even certainty in some quarters, that a […]

When I started this series of ADC Coalition and the Road to 2027, one of the central questions was not whether a coalition could be formed, but whether it could survive. At the time, the alignment of major political figures created a sense of momentum. There was curiosity, even certainty in some quarters, that a credible opposition bloc could emerge ahead of 2027.

Looking back, I recall that even at the early stages, when the alignment was still being widely celebrated, I held a different view in conversations with a few close associates. My concern was not about whether the coalition could come together, but whether it could sustain itself. Bringing together multiple presidential-level actors without a clear path to consensus on leadership, in my view, was always going to test the limits of that unity. At the time, that position was seen by some as being pessimistic. But the underlying issue was never about doubt for its own sake. It was about recognising that in Nigerian politics, ambition, when not resolved early, rarely resolves itself later.

What we are seeing now across the political space is not entirely surprising. Conversations about possible exits, alternative platforms, and shifting allegiances are no longer hidden. They are becoming part of public discourse. In the case of Peter Obi, he has now publicly confirmed exit from the ADC coalition, a development that has immediately reshaped ongoing calculations within the broader opposition space. Similar signals of recalibration are also being associated with other political actors such as Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, who continues to be linked to evolving strategic positioning. Whether these movements fully consolidate into a final realignment or trigger further fragmentation is not even the most important issue. The real issue is what these signals say about the stability of the coalition itself. This was always predictable.

The individuals at the centre of this coalition are not just participants in politics. They are products of long-standing ambition. Figures such as Atiku Abubakar, Peter Obi, Rabiu Kwankwaso, and Rotimi Amaechi have spent years building political relevance, structures, and national visibility. These are not individuals who arrived at this point by accident. Each of them has, at different times, either pursued the presidency or operated close enough to it to remain within that conversation. That reality creates both strength and limitation.

In Nigerian politics, ambition is not something that is easily set aside. It is managed, negotiated, and sometimes postponed, but rarely abandoned. A coalition built around individuals with long-established presidential aspirations will always face a defining question early. Who leads, who follows, and who steps aside. Without a clear answer to that question, alignment remains temporary. This is where the coalition appears to have stalled.

There was an expectation in some quarters that the coalition could generate a political wave similar to what Nigeria witnessed in 2015. The idea of a “tsunami” has been repeated often in political conversations, especially by those hoping that dissatisfaction with current realities would naturally translate into a unified electoral shift. But that comparison misses a key difference. The 2015 moment was not just about bringing people together. It was about convergence around a single figure. The emergence of Muhammadu Buhari created a centre of gravity that simplified a very complex political equation. Across different blocs, there was an understanding that Buhari commanded a level of national recognition and cross-regional support that others at the time did not. Even among strong contenders, the calculation eventually shifted toward consolidation.

That kind of convergence does not currently exist. Today’s opposition space is defined by multiple strong figures, each with loyal supporters, but none with uncontested national dominance. That changes everything. Without a natural rallying point, the burden shifts to negotiation. And negotiation, especially among individuals with equal ambition, is often slow, difficult, and uncertain.

While the opposition continues to navigate these internal challenges, the ruling party operates from a position of clarity. At some state levels, there are internal disagreements and competing interests, which is not unusual in a political system of this scale. However, when it comes to the presidential level, there is far less ambiguity. There is a clear understanding of direction, and a settled position on leadership. There is also an established system of managing internal interests, resolving disputes, and maintaining cohesion. These are not abstract advantages. They are practical factors that shape political outcomes.

In contrast, the coalition is still negotiating itself. This difference is critical. Elections are not decided only by public sentiment. They are decided by organisation, coordination, and timing. A coalition that spends too much time resolving internal ambition risks losing the opportunity to build external momentum.

The behaviour of other political actors reflects this reality. Governors, legislators, and influential stakeholders are watching carefully. Their decisions are guided less by rhetoric and more by viability. They align where they see structure, clarity, and a realistic path to political relevance. In a situation where a coalition appears uncertain, hesitation becomes the natural response.

This is how fragmentation begins. It does not start with a dramatic break. It starts with doubt. It grows through parallel conversations. Over time, those conversations become alternatives. By the time movement becomes visible, the underlying shift has already taken place. What we are witnessing now are early signs of that process.

The implications are straightforward. A fragmented opposition weakens itself and strengthens the incumbent by default. The narrative of a one-party system is often raised in such situations, but it is rarely created by force alone. It is also the result of an opposition that is unable to organise itself into a credible alternative. When unity fails, dominance becomes easier.

At the same time, voter psychology has evolved. Nigerians are more cautious now, and the expectations that once surrounded candidates have been tempered by experience. Party affiliation still matters, but it is no longer the only factor shaping electoral choices. There is a growing tendency to assess individuals independently, to weigh their credibility, track record, and perceived competence rather than rely on broad symbolic appeal. This shift has reduced the likelihood of any single figure commanding overwhelming national expectation, and it also makes coalition politics more demanding. It is no longer enough to gather influential names. There must be a clear and believable direction, one that connects political alignment with real expectations of governance.

None of this means the coalition cannot recover. Politics remains fluid, and realignments can still produce unexpected outcomes. But the window for recovery is narrowing. It narrows with time, and it narrows with every sign of internal division. The truth is that the coalition was always going to be tested, not by the strength of its members, but by their willingness to place collective success above individual ambition. That test is now underway.

If the current signals evolve into concrete exits and parallel alignments, then what is happening now will not be surprising. It will simply confirm what was already visible from the beginning. In the end, the question has never been whether the coalition has strong individuals. It clearly does. The question is whether those individuals can remain under one structure long enough to build something coherent. So far, the answer is still forming, but the direction is becoming clearer.