Who is optimistic about 2019?
Few days before the U.S presidential elections, I became excessively addicted to many websites and social media platforms that provided regular updates regarding the activities of the candidates standing in the election. There is this particular pro-Democrats page on Facebook whose updates two to three days before the election were largely and confidently about how […]
Few days before the U.S presidential elections, I became excessively addicted to many websites and social media platforms that provided regular updates regarding the activities of the candidates standing in the election. There is this particular pro-Democrats page on Facebook whose updates two to three days before the election were largely and confidently about how Hillary Clinton was going to have a smooth ride over Donald Trump. Hours before the election, the tone of the updates from the page started showing some signs of nervousness and apparent decline in confidence. Immediately after it became clear that Donald Trump was going to win, the updates didn’t stop, rather, they quickly shifted towards rolling out plans and strategies on how to defeat the Republican in 2020.
The narrative above is to a large extent, a reflection of how thousands, if not millions, of Nigerians are building up their minds towards 2019. While the pro-Democrats are quick to start the plans of how to unseat the yet-to-assume-office President Trump without analysing the circumstances that made it possible for a person of Trump’s calibre to emerge president, some Nigerians are quick to go to the polls in 2019 to replace our current leaders without first finding solutions to the circumstances that make it possible for the kind of inept leaders we have to emerge and keep emerging.
Ordinarily, we shouldn’t be talking of 2019 as we are only in 2016, but since talking about it appears to be what many Nigerians like, it isn’t completely out of place if we dedicate some paragraphs to it. However, we must accept the fact that by allowing 2019 to dominate our political discussions this early, we have subconsciously abandoned our duty of monitoring those currently calling the shots as well as the obligation of holding them accountable for as long as they remain in office. Meanwhile, how have we faired with the instruments our constitution gave us to checkmate our leaders without necessarily waiting for elections? For instance, how many legislators we accuse of wrongdoing have we recalled?
Just like 2003, 2007, 2011 and 2015, year 2019 is most likely not going to be much different in terms of the kind of leaders that will emerge. If we like, we may keep changing the individuals but as long as we don’t reform the system, the individuals will behave and remain the same. Now just think of this; has the attitude and conduct of an average Nigerian state governor in 1999 or 2003 been significantly different from that of 2011 or 2015? How about the national and state legislators, local government chairmen and councillors? This is not to say that there are no exceptions, but we can’t expect a negative system to produce positive results except in extremely rare cases.
While we look forward to 2019, we must remember that it is still largely the amount of money you have that mainly determines your success in primary elections; people win elections without any manifesto; party officials at virtually all levels are not elected but selected; godfathers are still the movers and shakers of politics; majority of Nigerians are still largely politically ignorant without any effective mechanism for voter education in place for the foreseeable future; election offenders and fraudsters are still not punished; local government elections are still a sham; there is no level playing ground for non-incumbents against incumbents, among others.
The desperation through the employment of money, violence and fraud with which participants approached the recent gubernatorial elections in Kogi, Bayelsa and Edo states as well as the numerous re-run elections in many states across the country is an unfortunate eye-opener of what to expect in 2019 elections. Leaders who keep emerging through such a flawed process will neither care to reform the process, nor feel seriously obligated to deliver on their promises.
The question then is: where do we start? Here is an idea; how about we quickly start thinking of a political party backed by ordinary Nigerians and not one populated by aggrieved PDP and APC politicians; one that nobody will need millions of naira before clinching any of its tickets?
Amir Abdulazeez can be reached, Twitter: @AmirAbdulazeez