Why Japa syndrome is inevitable in oil and gas industry – Ex-PENGASSAN president

In this interview, a former president of the Petroleum and Natural Gas Senior Staff Association of Nigeria, and the Trade Union Congress of Nigeria, Dr Brown Louis Ogbeifun, speaks on the recent Venezuela’s upheaval, implications for global oil market, Nigeria’s energy sector and how best to reposition it for value addition. Excerpts:   What is […]

In this interview, a former president of the Petroleum and Natural Gas Senior Staff Association of Nigeria, and the Trade Union Congress of Nigeria, Dr Brown Louis Ogbeifun, speaks on the recent Venezuela’s upheaval, implications for global oil market, Nigeria’s energy sector and how best to reposition it for value addition. Excerpts:

 

What is the implication of the recent arrest of President of Venezuela by the United State on the global oil market and Nigeria, whose mainstay is crude oil export?

Before the US intervention, Venezuela held about 303 billion barrels of crude oil, the largest proven reserves globally; it was producing about 1% of global crude oil output due to mismanagement and US sanctions.

For that reason, the global oil industry did not experience a significant change in the worldwide oil market. However, since the US seeks to rehabilitate Venezuela’s oil industry, production will likely exceed pre-Maduro levels, which could lead to a crude glut and a significant price drop, because the United States is unlikely to comply with OPEC quota prescriptions for member countries, of which Venezuela was a founding member.

In Nigeria, there may be no immediate structural or price adjustments. However, once Venezuela’s production peaks, Nigeria’s grades of crude will face stiff competition from Venezuela’s heavy oil. They may not be attractive to our Asian, Spanish, and Dutch buyers because of higher production costs relative to those in the Atlantic basin.

Moreover, gains in Venezuela may push crude oil below $50, which would have profound implications for budgeting when the time comes.

Therefore, my counsel is that, before the Venezuelan oil industry stabilizes, Nigeria should begin developing effective and efficient mechanisms for crude production to help reduce costs.

Lastly, before the Venezuelan crude oil sector returns to the global stage, our government must go beyond the ordinary to deepen our ties with our buyers in Asia and Europe.

 

Nigeria’s oil industry made measurable progress last year despite the inherent challenges of the country’s economic environment. Could you share your 2026 projections and explain how the government can add more value?

In 2025, Nigeria saw an increase in its rig count; crude production hovered between 1.4 million and 1.5 million barrels/day (including condensates); over 43 FDPs were approved; new gas supply arrangements were implemented; the downstream sector was stable, thanks to Dangote’s refinery.

I expect that, in 2026, if the government addresses insecurity, crude production will improve as NLNG Train 7 comes online, and the gas flaring commercialization program, which has awarded more than 42 licenses to various contractors, would have a substantial impact on flared gas.

The deepwater projects could also advance beyond 2025 levels. To achieve these objectives, the government and oil and gas chieftains should find ways to eradicate pipeline vandalism.

Ways to prevent pipeline vandalism include approving more modular refineries near crude sources, deploying drones, and using satellite pipeline surveillance systems to monitor oil and gas pipelines and strategic assets. In addition, the Central Bank of Nigeria should stabilize our currency and reduce foreign exchange volatility.

A weak naira and inflation may cause oil workers to flee Nigeria, according to a recent report. What is your concern here, and why are they contemplating ‘Japa ‘ when the industry’s workforce receives the highest salaries in Nigeria?

The real issue isn’t that oil workers are underpaid in our local currency. It’s that the naira itself has lost so much value that even the highest salaries in Nigeria can no longer guarantee stability, long-term security, or global competitiveness.

Nigeria’s inflation rate has eroded the purchasing power of the working class; the naira has depreciated sharply; imported goods, such as cars, are costly; there is no viable public transport system; and housing, children’s education, and quality healthcare are becoming unaffordable.

To bring this home, a N2 million monthly salary in 2015 was about $10,000. As of today, that same N2 million may be worth $1,300–$1,500, depending on the exchange rate. That’s possibly an astronomical 90% collapse in global value.

Since you specifically asked about pay in the oil and gas industry, a driller in Nigeria may earn the equivalent of $20,000–$25,000 per year after conversion; their counterparts in the same role in the Middle East or North Sea earn about $120,000–$180,000 per year, which is tax-free in some cases.

Why would they not get fixated on Japa? So, my brother, when all these factors are considered in a comparative analysis with other oil-producing nations, “Japa” syndrome becomes inevitable and a rational economic calculation rather than just an emotional reaction.

A recent report quoted that there are anticipated job losses on account of the use of clean energy. How prepared is Nigeria’s oil industry for this?

Nigeria is part of the global village and therefore not insulated from the challenges of transitioning to cleaner fuels. A recent energy transition analysis found that Nigeria could lose about 110,000 oil-sector jobs (direct and indirect) by 2050 under a net-zero scenario compared with 2020 levels.

However, if Nigeria walks the talk on the international agreements and protocols it has signed and begins its energy transition in earnest, industry experts say it could create more than 840,000 net new jobs in renewables, grid expansion, and related areas.

Personal and corporate learning and development programs, such as reskilling and retooling, could help reduce job losses.

Nigeria has energy transition plans, exemplified by the Decade of Gas Initiative, a strategic policy action plan for gas utilization from 2021 to 2030, which aims to use natural gas as a transition fuel for development. The world’s focus is shifting from fossil fuels to cleaner energy sources, but Nigeria hopes to use natural gas to galvanize its development.

To achieve this objective, it is crucial for energy transition drivers, especially Nigeria’s government-led energy transition institutions, to integrate Nigeria’s gas and renewable energy plans seamlessly.

Secondly, Nigeria intends to systematically develop renewable energy sources, including solar and wind, and other technologies to provide energy to most Nigerians living in rural areas, where hybrid energy systems (HES) can deliver reliable power.