Why power must shift to the South in 2023

By Haruna Musa   Since Nigeria rejoined the comity of democratic nations in 1999, the issue of power rotation has been a source of conflict among the Nigerian political elite.  This is evident in the way the political elite are already clamouring for where power must be shifted to in 2023 when Nigeria will conduct […]

By Haruna Musa

 

Since Nigeria rejoined the comity of democratic nations in 1999, the issue of power rotation has been a source of conflict among the Nigerian political elite.  This is evident in the way the political elite are already clamouring for where power must be shifted to in 2023 when Nigeria will conduct yet another general election.

Historically, when Nigeria returned to democratic rule in 1999, both the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and the defunct Alliance for Democracy (AD) fielded Chief Olusegun Obasanjo and Chief Olu Falae, respectively apparently to ensure that power shifted to the South to among other things calm frayed nerves among the Yoruba people who felt that they were shortchanged by the annulment of the 1993 presidential election won by  Chief Moshood Kashimawo Abiola.

Chief Olusegun Obasanjo, who contested on the platform of the PDP, emerged victorious in the election and served out his two terms of eight years in office.  In its effort to maintain a political balance among the various geo-political zones in the country, PDP decided to introduce what is known today as zoning formula which although is not in the nation’s constitution is generally accepted as one of the ways to entrench peace in the country.

Expectedly, the zoning formula of the  PDP in the 2007 general election favoured the North which resulted in the party’s presidential candidate, Alhaji  Umaru Musa Yar’adua winning the election.  Unfortunately, Yar’adua took ill and later died half way into his administration.

After his death, Goodluck Jonathan, who was the then vice president, as stipulated by the constitution completed the remaining two years.

In 2015, power once again returned to the North when  President Muhammadu Buhari won the presidential election on the platform of the All Progressives Congress (APC).  Now that President Buhari is on the last lap of his eight year tenure, the issue already rocking the political arena is which of the six geo-political zones of the country should produce the next president.

Under the “gentleman agreement” within the power blocs of the PDP in 2007 which is today known as “zoning formula”, the southern region of the country was supposed to produce the next president. However, following dissenting voices especially within the ruling APC, this “gentleman agreement” is being threatened.

But in the real sense of it, power is actually supposed to shift to the South without any hassle.  When it was the turn of the North and Buhari was presented as their consensus candidate, there were no such dissenting voices because many believed that actually, it was then the turn of the North to produce the president.

Recently, there has been a massive campaign among the southern political elite that power should shift to the region come the 2023 general election.

Apart from the Southern Governors Forum, which at its meeting sometime ago resolved that power should rotate to the region, some northern governors and individual political heavy weights from the North have drummed their support that power should this time around rotate to the South.

Prominent among northern governors who believe that power should rotate to the South are Governor Nasir El-Rufai of Kaduna State and his Kano State counterpart, Alhaji Abdullahi Ganduje. Both governors unanimously spoke against the proponents who believe power should be decided based on competence and opposed anything zoning.

Also in support of the power shift to the southern part of the country is Benue State governor, Samuel Ortom, who was recently quoted to have said he is fully in support of rotational presidency and believes that it is the time of the South to lead Nigeria.

Borno State governor, Professor Babagana Zulum, is another northern governor who is of the view that zoning the presidency to the South in the coming poll is crucial to national unity and inclusivity.

As the 2023 election draws closer, one should expect political parties to sit up and come up with workable formulas that will lead to victory. While agitating for power shift, the political elite must also bear in mind the unity of this country. 

At a time some parts of southern Nigeria are complaining of marginalization and all that, shortchanging them by not abiding by the zoning formula even though it is not in the constitution will create more apprehension among them.

In a plural country like Nigeria, there is nothing wrong with power rotation. No region has the monopoly of power. Through this political arrangement, every region will be equally represented. Therefore, rotation of the presidency is capable of addressing the issue of power domination by certain regions or tribes in the country.

Since most of the stakeholders are of the view that power shifting to the South this time would ensure peace in the country as it is likely to calm frayed nerves, the political elite should have a re-think and find a way to midwife return of political power to the southern part of Nigeria.

Like the Benue governor, Samuel Ortom, said only equity, fairness and justice can strengthen the unity of Nigeria, give all citizens sense of belonging and reduce tensions across the country.  If rotating the presidency to the South will achieve all the above, then it is a task that must be carried out.

Musa sent this piece from Abuja