Will Scotland leave the UK?

The referendum to be conducted tomorrow by Scotland for independence from Britain has further shunted the colonial master onto the verge of losing its significance as a world power.The ding-dong affair, in recent weeks, shows the vote in the planned referendum is too close to call as the “no” or “yes” sides are confident of […]

The referendum to be conducted tomorrow by Scotland for independence from Britain has further shunted the colonial master onto the verge of losing its significance as a world power.
The ding-dong affair, in recent weeks, shows the vote in the planned referendum is too close to call as the “no” or “yes” sides are confident of victory. Indeed not until the votes are counted, it would not be clear whether Scotland shall be “free” again.
In the referendum, people resident in Scotland and elsewhere will be able to take part in the vote, answering the “Yes/No” to the question, “Should Scotland be an Independent Country?” Such referendum has already been held twice – in 1979 and 1997.
Following an agreement between the Scottish and the United Kingdom governments, the Scottish Independence Referendum Bill, setting out the arrangements for this referendum, was put forward on March 21, 2013, passed by the Scottish Parliament on November 14, 2013 and received Royal Assent on December 17, 2013.
Scotland and England united to form the Kingdom of Great Britain in 1707, by virtue of the Acts of Union.
According to information from Wikipedia, the Acts of Union were two Acts of Parliament: the Union with Scotland Act 1706 passed by the Parliament of England, and the Union with England Act passed in 1707 by the Parliament of Scotland. They put into effect the terms of the Treaty of Union that had been agreed on July 22, 1706, following negotiation between commissioners representing the parliaments of the two countries.
The acts joined the Kingdom of England and the Kingdom of Scotland (previously separate states with separate legislatures, but with the same monarchy) into a single, United Kingdom named Great Britain.
The two countries had shared a monarchy since the Union of the Crowns in 1603, when King James VI of Scotland inherited the English throne from his double first cousin twice removed, Queen Elizabeth I. Although described as a Union of Crowns, until 1707 there were in fact two separate crowns resting on the same head (as opposed to the implied creation of a single Crown and a single Kingdom, exemplified by the later Kingdom of Great Britain).
Also, there had been three attempts in 1606, 1667, and 1689 to unite the two countries by acts of parliament, but it was not until the early 18th century that both political establishments came to support the idea, albeit for different reasons.
The acts took effect on May 1, 1707. On this date, the Scottish Parliament and the English Parliament united to form the Parliament of Great Britain, based in the Palace of Westminster in London, the home of the English Parliament. Hence, the acts are referred to as the Union of the Parliaments. However, prior to this, the Kingdom of Scotland had been a sovereign state for over 800 years.
For tomorrow’s referendum, the electoral commission has revealed that 4,285,323 people have registered to vote. This is a large number indeed.
Under the terms of the 2010 Draft Bill, those entitled to vote are British citizens who are resident in Scotland; citizens of the 52 other Commonwealth countries who are resident in Scotland; citizens of 27 other European Union countries who are resident in Scotland; members of the House of Lords who are resident in Scotland; Service/Crown personnel serving in the UK or overseas in the British Armed Forces or with Her Majesty’s Government who are registered to vote in Scotland.
Three weeks earlier, a poll showing support for Scottish independence at its highest ever level threw the fate of the United Kingdom into question but even as at Monday, the swing became very indecisive. Both Prime Minister David Cameron and Scotland’s First Minister and leader of the Scottish National Party (SNP), Alex Salmond, made last minute moves to convince Scots about their positions.
Salmond, who has been championing the course of independence for Scotland, said it is a “once in a generation” opportunity but pledged not to quickly bring back another referendum if Scots choose to remain in the UK. He said one vote is enough to win but insisted the yes campaign was hoping for a “substantial majority”.
Speaking in the Scottish city of Aberdeen on Monday, Prime Minister David Cameron begged the people of Scotland not to leave the United Kingdom, saying it would be a “painful divorce”. He said Salmond’s separatist movement had “painted a picture” of an independent Scotland that was “too good to be true.”
Cameron said the reality would involve stricter borders which could mean people being forced to “pack their passport when they’re going to see friends and loved ones.”
According to the UK Huffington Post, commentators have been predicting a “neverendum” if the “No” campaign wins tomorrow by a narrow margin, with nationalists calling for a new independence poll within a few years.
However, several recent polls show a slim lead for the “No” camp, with one suggesting the pro-independence side had a lead of eight points – the reverse of the picture in a poll commissioned by “Better Together” led by Alistair Darling of the Labour Party who has been a member of parliament (MP) since 1987. He was Chancellor of the Exchequer from 2007 to 2010. Darling was one of only three people to have served in the Cabinet continuously from Labour’s victory in 1997 until its defeat in 2010; the others being Gordon Brown and Jack Straw.
On her part, the Queen has made a dramatic and highly unusual intervention in the referendum debate to urge voters to think “very carefully” before they vote tomorrow.
The “No” leads by 50.6% to 49.4% according to Panelbase for the Sunday Times and with the undecideds taken out by 53% to 47% in a research by Opinium for the Observer.
However, a ICM poll for the Sunday Telegraph put the Yes camp in front with 54% to 46%, although it had a smaller than usual sample size of 705 while a Survation poll commissioned by “Better Together” camp again found that 54% plan to vote “No” while 46% intend to say “Yes” factoring out undecided voters.
Nevertheless, Darling denied there had been a lack of passion on the side of the “No” campaign and accused Mr Salmond of “jumping the gun” with his comments.
Former Prime Minister John Major, meanwhile, suggested that if Scotland gains independence, the remaining UK could lose its permanent seat at the UN Security Council.
Indeed nationalists insist an independent Scotland would not be over-reliant on oil. They believe the UK Government has squandered most of the North Sea oil revenues by failing to establish a fund for the money to be invested.
Also, on the monarchy, the Queen would remain head of state in Scotland, just as in Canada, Australia and New Zealand. Salmond, who held a private audience with the Queen at Balmoral Castle several weeks ago, said that while she would not want to enter the referendum debate herself, she would be “proud to be Queen of Scots.”
For the media, at the launch of the independence White Paper, Salmond offered assurances that Scotland would still have access to all the BBC programming. A new Scottish Broadcasting Corporation (SBC) would be created as a state broadcaster, and the BBC’s Scottish staff could form part of that new organisation.
Basically, a vote to breakaway would be followed by negotiations with London on what to do about the sterling, national debt, North Sea oil and the future of Britain’s nuclear submarine base in Scotland ahead of independence pencilled for March 24, 2016.
But, whichever way the pendulum would swing in tomorrow’s ballot, the Scots would have made a point for self-determination.