Winning the race to implosion

Of course, the double blasts have already taken their place in the hall of infamy alongside other terrible episodes of violence in this country in the last five years, what with the death of scores of people and the injury sustained by several dozen persons. Kaduna may have fared off better than Kano, for instance, […]

Of course, the double blasts have already taken their place in the hall of infamy alongside other terrible episodes of violence in this country in the last five years, what with the death of scores of people and the injury sustained by several dozen persons. Kaduna may have fared off better than Kano, for instance, but it has suffered several nasty episodes of insecurity over the years, including the bomb that prematurely detonated on Sardauna Crescent and killed scores of achaba riders in 2002 as well as attacks on churches in Zaria and Kaduna that year and last year.
 President Jonathan said yesterday that if the attackers had succeeded in killing Buhari and Sheikh Dahiru Bauchi, “We wouldn’t have been here today. This country would have been in turmoil. We couldn’t have gathered here to celebrate.” Who wouldn’t be where? There certainly would be some people left in Nigeria because all of us cannot be killed by a single calamity, even if it is a nuclear bomb. However, depending upon what everyone does in the aftermath of a major tragedy, there may be no Nigeria and earlier than that, there may be no Jonathan presidency.
Since 2009 when this country entered into an era of pervasive insecurity, episodes have happened of increasing potential to wreck the country. The perpetrators’ logic, clearly, is to ignite an inter-communal war that could lead to the country’s break up, presumably so that the insurgents could grab the Muslim part and establish an ISIS-style Caliphate. It was always a toss up as to which one of them could precipitate mass inter-communal carnage. Some of them nearly succeeded, such as the double attack on churches at Zaria and Kaduna in 2002 that ignited inter-communal riots. Last year’s bombing of luxurious buses headed for the east at Kano’s Sabon Gari motor park also precipitated tension in the eastern states and forced Northerners living there to dash into army and police barracks.
It reminds me of a story I once read in The Economist magazine in the 1990s when India and Pakistan renewed their regional nuclear arms race. An Indian official was quoted as saying that India’s strategy was to force Pakistan to go bankrupt as a result of the arms race. At the time, India’s economy had not become the behemoth that it is today so The Economist wryly observed that “Pakistan may well win this race to penury but India will not be far behind.” If the assassination of prominent political and religious leaders wins the race to Nigeria’s implosion, church bombings will not be very far behind. The wholesale slaughter of schoolboys and mass abduction of schoolgirls would at least deserve a consolation prize.
The belief in official circles is that if the bombers had succeeded in killing Sheikh Dahiru Bauchi, millions of followers of the Tijjaniya sect would erupt in a revolt. They may not. Tijjaniya is an old, international, highly structured and highly disciplined sect. It is also noted for its apolitical stance. Its mighty clerics hardly dabble into political issues; they are too much absorbed in their search for knowledge, their elaborate religious rituals and their highly developed attitude of brothers’ keeper.
Even if Tijjaniya followers wanted to riot, they would be short of targets. Even though they have disputes with other Muslim sects, they hardly suspect them of staging the attack. All indications point instead to Boko Haram. It was a bit of a surprise because two years ago, the sect nominated Sheikh Dahiru to mediate between it and the government. The Sheikh did give it a try but the negotiations broke down due, as he himself said, to the government’s reluctance to negotiate.
Some observers think that Boko Haram attacked Sheikh Dahiru Bauchi in order to grab international attention. Now, most Muslim clerics will frown at taking someone’s life just to grab media attention. Incidentally, Sheikh Dahiru too said as much in a tafsir two days before the attack when he dwelled on a verse of the Holy Quran that prohibits the taking of innocent peoples’ lives. Some thought that particular tafsir precipitated the attack but it is doubtful if an attack of this magnitude could have been planned and executed within two days.
The attack on General Buhari was even murkier than the attack on the Sheikh. Even though he has not said very much publicly about Boko Haram, any detached observer would conclude that a man of Buhari’s military background and civil war experience, who held the highest political offices and who has an iron sense of societal order [remember the War Against Indiscipline] could not possibly countenance an armed insurgency involving the indiscriminate shooting, bombing and abduction of citizens.
Yet, that was exactly what some people alleged in order to score political points against him. As a logical extension of the label of a Muslim parochialist that political opponents successfully pinned on him since his entry into politics in 2002, some have alleged that Buhari is in cahoots with Boko Haram. Their propaganda case was helped somewhat when a report named Buhari as one of the men that Boko Haram nominated to negotiate with the government on its behalf. Of course, Buhari quickly disowned the “nomination” and said he could not negotiate on behalf of people he didn’t know or support, but the damage had been done. Mujahid Dokubo Asari has even alleged that Buhari stage managed the bombing, much like saying the Chibok girls stage managed their own abduction.
The main reason to suspect that Boko Haram attacked Buhari is the fact that a suicide bomber did the job. That fact was clearer than in the case of the attack on Sheikh Dahiru attack, where it is not clear whether it was a suicide bomber or just a remotely detonated bomb. One report quoted the police as saying there were three men in the car that attacked Buhari’s convoy. The suicide bombing element alone tends to excuse other suspects because Boko Haram and al-Shabab are the only franchises in Africa to have used suicide bombers.
Of course, President Jonathan’s anxiety was obvious because many Buhari supporters would rather believe that it was the Presidency that did the job. Their evidence is simple; only two days before the attack, Buhari lashed out at the Presidency for sponsoring the serial impeachment of APC state governors. The Presidency responded with very harsh words of its own. So it was a case of the owl cried and the child died.
It is difficult to judge that case fairly. On the one hand, what Buhari said about the Presidency/PDP sponsoring impeachments rings true in the ears of most Nigerians. On the other hand, his stance that his statement was borne out of statesmanship did not have to be believed since he is a partisan in the field. I can only say here that many statesmen share his view that the Presidency is behind the gubernatorial impeachments. Should the Presidency have responded so harshly? Well, it could, since a man committing an immoral act often convinces himself that he is doing the right thing.
Everyone should learn a lesson from this episode. The country is up against an unscrupulous enemy determined to do everything to ensure its break up. There have been many terrible twists and turns in the Boko Haram war. If some more dangerous things were to happen in the future, how do we ensure that no one loses his head and does exactly that which will help the attackers to achieve their goal?
Let me make one suggestion, before the efficient propaganda machines of the quarrelling political parties accuse me of arm chair criticism without constructive suggestions.  I suggest that a national summit of all political parties should be convened urgently to ratify an agreement that the war against terrorism should be off limits to partisan political bickering. Don’t worry Metuh and Lai; there are many other issues left for you to bicker and rant.