With a ‘ceasefire’ like this

“Without any prejudice to the outcome of our three days’ interactions and the conclusions of this forum, I wish to inform this audience that a ceasefire agreement has been concluded between the Federal Government of Nigeria and the Ahlus Sunnah Lid Da’awati Wal Jihad (the name with which Boko Haram is also known as).  I […]

“Without any prejudice to the outcome of our three days’ interactions and the conclusions of this forum, I wish to inform this audience that a ceasefire agreement has been concluded between the Federal Government of Nigeria and the Ahlus Sunnah Lid Da’awati Wal Jihad (the name with which Boko Haram is also known as).  I have accordingly directed the Service Chiefs to ensure immediate compliance with this development in the field”.
Surprise, relief, hope and scepticism struggled for dominance as the implications of the announcement sank in.  When everyone was almost giving up hope, the five years of insurgency that has claimed thousands of lives and crippled the economy of the entire North East region and displaced hundreds of thousands of people, and millions more at risk, was about to come to an end. Reports emerged thereafter that the over 200 Chibok schoolgirls abducted since April may be released the following Monday, Oct 20. International reaction to the news was ecstatic, illustrated by French President François Hollande, who welcomed the development and said the schoolgirls’ release was imminent. “Boko Haram have said they will free these young girls and we have information that this will happen in the coming hours or days”, he was quoted as saying at a meeting of the European economic agency OECD.   The Director General of the National Orientation Agency (NOA) and Coordinator of the government’s National Information Centre (NIC), Mr Mike Omeri, asserted that the abducted Chibok schoolgirls were hale and hearty. President Goodluck Jonathan’s Senior Special Assistant on Public Affairs, Dr Doyin Okupe, in a gushing statement, attributed the success of the deal with Boko Haram to the president’s shuttle diplomacy to Niger and Chad Republic. Even Governor Kassim Shettima of Borno State, which bears the brunt of the destructiveness of the insurgency, seemed impressed, welcoming the ceasefire, describing it as “a most welcome development.” It was too good to be true.  As a matter of fact, it was not.
Hours after that announcement, the insurgents launched attack on locations in Borno State, targeting military formations. Most accounts quoted security officials as claiming that the insurgents were well-armed than was previously thought.
That scale of the problem can be seen in the fall of Mubi, Adamawa State’s second town and biggest centre of commerce last week, renaming it ‘Madinatul Islam’, and the reported capture last night of Ashaka Cement Company in Gombe.
A video surfaced showing what appeared to be the Boko Haram leader, Abubakar Shekau, denying the existence of any ceasefire pact and foreclosing any prospects of such talks in the future.
According to a graphic reporting by this newspaper, the insurgents control territory larger than three southern states combined.
This is a confounding reality that seemed to have stumped the government, which in the past two years has placed three of the states in the region-Borno, Yobe, and Adamawa states-under a state of emergency and deployed thousands of soldiers to confront and contain the insurgency; with little deterrent effect.  From the onset, the Jonathan administration has treated the insurgency as a political manoeuvre by some politicians in the North to stop him from being a candidate in the 2015 elections. At home and in the eyes of the international community, the government is seen as either not serious or incompetent, or both, in tackling the challenge that has now snowballed into a catastrophe, with a huge humanitarian crisis staring the nation in the face.
 Was the government deceived into announcing a bogus ceasefire? Or it simply played along because its officials have no practically idea of the unfolding tragedy and its consequences?   Despite mounting evidence pointing to the contrary, government officials maintain that talks were still on, but provided no further information. Each day the government dillydallies, the insurgents take and hold territory, establishing facts on the ground that make it increasingly difficult to see how the government plans to return the country to the status quo ante.