Yobe gov’ship: Factors that worked against Ahmad Lawan

Former Senate President, Ahmad Ibrahim Lawan, last week withdrew from the race for the All Progressives Congress (APC) governorship ticket in Yobe State after the party’s stakeholders, including Governor Mai Mala Buni, endorsed Baba Malam Wali, former Secretary to the State Government, as the consensus candidate for the 2027 election. Lawan is widely regarded as […]

Former Senate President, Ahmad Ibrahim Lawan, last week withdrew from the race for the All Progressives Congress (APC) governorship ticket in Yobe State after the party’s stakeholders, including Governor Mai Mala Buni, endorsed Baba Malam Wali, former Secretary to the State Government, as the consensus candidate for the 2027 election.

Lawan is widely regarded as one of the closest politicians from Yobe to President Bola Ahmed Tinubu. It is generally believed that the then APC leader played a significant role in Lawan’s emergence as President of the Ninth Senate.

Although the relationship between the two became strained after the APC presidential primary ahead of the 2023 election, owing to Lawan’s decision not to step down but to pursue his ambition to become the party’s presidential flagbearer, it is believed that, following Tinubu’s assumption of office as president, the rift was largely resolved.

According to sources, Lawan had intended to leverage his close ties with Tinubu to secure the APC governorship ticket in Yobe.

However, the manner of his withdrawal did not reflect the level of enthusiasm he had displayed when he declared his intention to contest the Yobe governorship only weeks earlier.

Unlike other aspirants, Senator Ibrahim Mohammed Bomai and Kashim Musa Tumsa, who kicked against Wali’s endorsement, Lawan accepted the party’s choice and urged his supporters to rally behind him.

In a statement posted on his official Facebook page, Lawan acknowledged the diversity of opinions and aspirations among his supporters but stressed that the survival and progress of Yobe State must take precedence over individual ambitions.

“Politics is never about the desire of one man; it is about the collective future of our people,” he said.

The Yobe North leader described Wali’s emergence as a historic opportunity for the zone, noting that it represents what many consider a long-awaited chance for the northern district to produce a governor since the creation of the state.

Our correspondent learnt that Lawan visited the Minister of Police Affairs, Ibrahim Geidam, at his residence in Abuja last week, where he reaffirmed his support for the APC consensus governorship candidate in Yobe State.

He disclosed that he had earlier sought time to consult with his supporters after the announcement, noting that the outcome of those engagements showed overwhelming backing for aligning with the decision of the party leadership.

However, many observers continue to ask what may have prompted Lawan’s change of position.

To political observers, the underlying issue may have been the ethnic configuration of the state.

Lawan belongs to the Bade ethnic group, which has a majority population in Gashua and Jakusko local government areas. This, however, is considered insufficient to sustain a statewide political base, making it risky for him to oppose the governor’s position.

The Kanuri, which constitutes the majority of the state’s population, is seen as unlikely to support Lawan in both primary and general elections without the backing of the state government.

Yobe and Borno remain the two states with a significant Kanuri population, and ethnic considerations have continued to play a decisive role in their political dynamics.

Since the return of democracy in 1999, the Kanuri have largely dominated the governorship of Yobe State, with the exception of the late Mamman Ali, who was from the Ngizim ethnic group.

Analysts say it would be difficult for a non-Kanuri candidate to secure the governorship ticket in the state.

As a member of a minority ethnic group, Lawan’s ambition—without strong party backing, strategic alliances, and the influence of incumbency—would face significant hurdles from the outset.

As a grassroots politician, Lawan is believed to understand that resistance would not enhance his chances if ethnicity became a defining factor in the contest.

The APC consensus candidate, Baba Malam Wali, hails from Nguru Local Government Area, while Lawan is from Bade (Gashua) Local Government Area of Yobe North. Although the region has not produced a governor or deputy governor since 1999, Wali is Kanuri.

Furthermore, political observers suggest that Lawan may be comfortable with the APC ticket shifting to his region, Yobe North, and may consider it equitable to support Wali’s emergence, potentially allowing the zone its first opportunity to produce a governor after years of political exclusion. This is also believed to have influenced his decision.

Lawan is also known to have maintained a cordial relationship with the administration of Governor Mai Mala Buni, and is believed to have benefited from appointments within the state government, a factor that may have further discouraged any move that could strain ties with the governor.

Speaking on the impact of Lawan’s withdrawal from the race, the state’s APC Youth Leader, Hon. Muhammad Musa Gulani, said the move would foster unity within the party and ease tension across the region and the state.

“His title is ‘Unity Senator,’ so we are not surprised by his recent decision. Lawan is a grassroots politician with a large support base.

“If he had gone against the party’s position, the ruling party could have risked losing the election in his senatorial zone, and he understands the level of support the APC has given him.

“So, the endorsement of Wali’s candidature is driven by the need for party unity and progress, in order to secure victory in the forthcoming election,” he said.

A political analyst based in Damaturu, Usman Hamza, noted that Lawan understands the complexities of Yobe politics and how the state government had supported him in previous elections, despite what he described as a relatively weak political structure.

“As for Senator Ahmad Ibrahim Lawan, despite his political stature, it appears unlikely that he would oppose the preferred candidate.

“The Kanuri from four LGAs within his constituency have long agitated for the Yobe North senatorial seat, but the government, particularly Ibrahim Geidam, insisted that Lawan should continue to occupy it,” he said.

Another political analyst, Comrade Muhammad Dauda Gombe, said Lawan aligned with the ruling party’s decision in a bid to support his region, Yobe North.

“When he met with his people, he made it clear that, regardless of the circumstances, the governorship ticket is coming to Northern Yobe. At best, this is seen as a key factor, especially since the ticket is shifting to a region that has never had such an opportunity.

“I believe Ahmed Lawan, as a responsible citizen and a beneficiary of democracy, has demonstrated maturity and solidarity with the people of Northern Yobe by allowing another candidate, not necessarily himself, to test the political waters.

“Also, his understanding of Yobe’s political realities may have influenced his decision to withdraw and align with the government and the consensus arrangement.

“Again, if he had rejected Wali’s endorsement, what political structure does he have that is strong enough to compete with the government’s machinery?

“This administration has maintained its structure consistently from inception to date. How many loyalists does he truly command within it? How many committed APC members with valid party cards are in his camp?

“Beyond mere registration, how many of them have fulfilled their financial obligations? The APC recently stated that only those who meet such requirements will participate. So, how would he effectively control the state?” he queried.