Zimbabwe Crisis: Four records crash in Zimbabwe
Events in Zimbabwe yesterday threatened to shatter four African and world records all at once. Zimbabwe has been one of the most politically stable countries in Africa and if what happened there yesterday turned out to be a military coup [which the Army generals were denying], it would be the first coup in that country […]
Events in Zimbabwe yesterday threatened to shatter four African and world records all at once. Zimbabwe has been one of the most politically stable countries in Africa and if what happened there yesterday turned out to be a military coup [which the Army generals were denying], it would be the first coup in that country in 37 years of independence. Compare that to Nigeria where a coup took place within five years of independence or Togo, which experienced a coup within three years of independence. The few remaining African countries that have never had a military coup since independence are Tanzania, Zambia, Namibia, Angola, Senegal, Morocco, Botswana, Mozambique and South Africa.
Secondly, military coups used to be two a penny in Africa. Since the overthrew of Togo’s Sylvanus Olympio in 1963, more than 100 successful and dozens of abortive military coups occurred in several dozen African countries over the next 50 years, especially in the first three decades. The last major coup in Africa took place in July 2013 when Field Marshal Mohammed Al-Sisi overthrew President Mohammed Morsi. The last abortive coup attempt, as far as I can determine, was in Burundi in May 2015 when General Godefroid Niyombare prematurely announced the sacking of President Pierre Nkurunziza. Events of yesterday have therefore shattered a long coup-less period in African history.
Thirdly, President Mugabe was in power for 37 years until yesterday, another record. At least 60% of all Africans were born in the period when Mugabe was in power. To put matters in perspective, Alhaji Shehu Shagari was ruling Nigeria, Ahmadou Ahidjo was ruling Cameroon, Goukouni Oudeyye was ruling Chad, Jafar al-Numeiry was ruling Sudan, Leopold Senghor was ruling Senegal, Anwar Sadat was ruling Egypt, Namibia was still under South African occupation and South Africa itself still had 14 years left of Apartheid rule when Mugabe became Prime Minister of Zimbabwe in March 1980. Just for comparison, Nigeria is having its 10th ruler since then while Zimbabwe still had one. Mugabe’s longevity in power exceeded Gambia’s President Dawda Jawara’s by four years and is only five years shorter than Libyan leader Muammar al-Qaddafi’s. It however fell far short of the record of former King Sobhuza II of Swaziland, who ruled his country from 1899 to 1982 [82 years, 254 days], “the longest verifiable reign of any monarch in recorded history.”
Fourthly, Robert Gabriel Mugabe, 93, was also the world’s oldest head of state until yesterday. He has had no rival since the death of Thailand’s King Bhumibol Adulyadej last year. All the great African gerentocrats such as Hastings Kamuzu Banda of Malawi, Habib Bourguiba of Tunisia and King Sobhuza of Lesotho are long gone. Last year the average age of African presidents was calculated at 71 and Mugabe was already two decades above average.
The coup unfolding in Zimbabwe was one of the few African coups with advanced warning. Commander of the Zimbabwe Defence Forces General Constantino Chiwenga addressed a conference at Army Headquarters in Harare on Monday and threatened to “step in” to end infighting in ZANU-PF. This coup is also one the most gentle ever witnessed on the African continent. So far there is no report of death, injury or major property damage. Mugabe told South African President Jacob Zuma that he is being detained in his house and is unmolested. That compares favourably to the 1980 coup in Liberia, when President William Tolbert was killed and a dozen of his ministers were lined up on the Monrovia beach and shot. Or even the January 1966 coup in Nigeria of which the less said, the better.
From all indications, this coup is gentle because Zimbabwe Defence Forces have a lot of reverence for Robert Mugabe’s record as a heroic freedom fighter, commander of the stoic ZANLA freedom fighters and for some decades a great African statesman. They have no intention of tarnishing his image or demolishing his national hero status, from all indications. They are only concerned that his wife of 21 years, Grace and other associates have seized upon his advanced age, cornered political power and are set to oust other liberation war heroes from ZANU-PF leadership positions so that Mrs Mugabe and her G40 faction will take over when Mugabe dies or retires. All that seems to be at an end now. Indications last night were that Mugabe will step down from the presidency tomorrow. Former Vice President Emmerson Mnangagwa, who returned to Zimbabwe from South Africa yesterday, is expected to take over as President while veteran opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai becomes prime minister in a transitional government of national unity.
What will the African Union, SADCC, EU and UN likely do in this situation? Most likely, they will demand “free and fair elections and a full return to constitutional democracy” in the country as soon as possible,” without Robert Gabriel Mugabe.