Alliance talks: Can SDP sustain momentum as third force?

The Social Democratic Party (SDP) is making waves as a potential game-changer in Nigeria’s political arena, with former Kaduna State governor, Nasiru El-Rufai’s high-profile defection from the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) igniting speculation of a seismic shift ahead of the 2027 elections. As political heavyweights flirt with the idea of joining the SDP, the […]

The Social Democratic Party (SDP) is making waves as a potential game-changer in Nigeria’s political arena, with former Kaduna State governor, Nasiru El-Rufai’s high-profile defection from the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) igniting speculation of a seismic shift ahead of the 2027 elections.

As political heavyweights flirt with the idea of joining the SDP, the party’s resurgence raises a critical question: Can it sustain its momentum and emerge as a credible third force in a landscape dominated by the APC and PDP – or will it fizzle out like past attempts to challenge Nigeria’s political duopoly?

El-Rufai’s defection has been seen as a precursor to a planned mass movement of political heavyweights from both the ruling party and opposition parties to the SDP. After his defection, he urged opposition leaders, including former Vice President and Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) presidential candidate, Atiku Abubakar, Labour Party’s Peter Obi, APC’s Rotimi Amaechi, and former Osun State governor, Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola, to join him in the SDP.

This call has sparked rumours of a wave of defections to the party, which has been debunked by prominent figures such as former Jigawa State governor, Sule Lamido, former Ekiti State governor, Kayode Fayemi, and former Senate President Ahmed Lawan. But the rumour of a massive defection of the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) bloc within the APC has refused to go away.

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While many of these influential figures have publicly ruled out joining the SDP for now, analysts caution that politicians’ public statements often diverge from their private ambitions.

Internal tensions over leadership positions

There are also suggestions that the SDP’s resurgence is being driven by former ministers and appointees from ex-President Muhammadu Buhari’s administration, who are dissatisfied with the current political landscape. Although Buhari has reaffirmed his commitment to the APC, some of his supporters are rumoured to be behind the SDP’s growing influence.

But just days after the El-Rufai-led influx into the party, indications already suggested all may not be well. Its National Secretary, Dr Olu Agunloye, petitioned the Inspector-General of Police, Kayode Egbetokun, over an alleged plot to force him to resign.

Based on the permutations that the new entrants were already eyeing some of its executive positions, the party had to declare that it would not cede leadership positions to a bloc of politicians and individuals defecting to the party. This was a reiteration of the position of the chairman of the party, Shehu Gabam, who in an earlier interview with Daily Trust, declared that the party “Would not be a special purpose vehicle for selfish politicians.”

If it was ever in doubt that the party was already having a battle with new entrants over executive positions, a former National Vice Chairman (North-West) of the APC, Salihu Lukman, who is believed to be involved in the defection plan to the SDP, ended the doubt. In a recent interview, he revealed that the intending members of the party had requested a new leadership.

“The issue we have is for them (SDP leadership) to open the party up and agree to produce new leadership that will reflect the new setup from ward to national level. They are resisting that, which is the issue.

“It is like buying a house but being told after moving in that you can’t change anything. Even as a tenant, I should have some rights. The discussion is still going on. Let’s see how it goes,” he stated.

Poaching of key members, another challenge?

But the problem for the new bride on the political scene goes beyond the struggle for its executive position. It has already started losing key members to the ruling party.

In Kano State, the defection of the party’s governorship candidate as well as vice presidential candidate to the ruling party along with some State Working Committee members, 38 local government chairmen and secretaries of the party, 13 former house of assembly and 6 house of representatives candidates in the 2023 election have been viewed as a sign of a crack already.

In Kwara State, Governor AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq has reportedly taken steps to counter the SDP’s momentum. Last week, he met behind closed doors with Adamu Manko, the SDP’s senatorial candidate for Kwara North in the 2023 National Assembly elections. Manko, who is said to have the financial resources to bolster the SDP, was reportedly urged to defect to the APC.

Political observers view AbdulRazaq’s move as a response to the 2023 elections, when aggrieved APC members in Kwara, backed by former Information minister, Alhaji Lai Mohammed, defected to the SDP in a failed attempt to wrest the governorship from him. As a staunch supporter of President Bola Tinubu and chairman of the Nigerian Governors’ Forum (NGF), AbdulRazaq is said to be working to secure solid support for Tinubu in 2027.

Amid the speculation and denials, SDP leader and 2023 presidential candidate Adewole Adebayo described El-Rufai’s defection as a positive development. He stated that the SDP has learned from the mistakes of 2023 and is committed to playing by the rules.

SDP National Chairman, Shehu Gabam echoed this sentiment, emphasising that the party seeks “fusion, not merger” in 2027, as mergers often lead to crises.

The party, through its Publicity Secretary, Araba Rufus Aiyenigba, also had to dismiss claims that President Tinubu or any godfather controls or funds the party. The party accused APC loyalists of spreading such narratives for personal and political gain.

Historically, the SDP has been a significant force in Nigerian politics since the aborted Third Republic. It is one of Nigeria’s oldest political parties, with a legacy that includes producing the late MKO Abiola as president-elect in the annulled June 12, 1993, election. The party’s third-force credentials were further bolstered ahead of the 2023 elections when it was rumoured to be a backup option for Tinubu if he failed to secure the APC’s presidential nomination.

However, analysts question whether the SDP can harness its historical legacy and current momentum to remain a viable third force ahead of the 2027 elections.

Recent developments have intensified discussions about a proposed coalition of opposition parties. Atiku Abubakar, speaking at a press conference alongside El-Rufai and other opposition figures in Abuja on Thursday, declared that the opposition is ready to challenge Tinubu in 2027, with the SDP playing a prominent role.

Despite this, New Nigeria People’s Party (NNPP) chieftain, Alhaji Buba Galadima downplayed the SDP’s defection wave, describing the party as an appendage of the APC.

Analysts’ perspectives on SDP’s future

A Kwara-based public affairs analyst, Elder Wole Adedeji noted that while the SDP aims to position itself as a third force, its true capacity will become clearer in the coming months.

“It is obvious the SDP wants to be the third force, and this is not the first time. In the next year or so, we will see whether those currently denying interest in the party will defect. Politicians often pretend. The SDP’s credentials as a progressive party will be tested as we approach 2027,” he said.

Writer and political analyst Shola Muse also told Daily Trust that El-Rufai likely consulted with many of the politicians now denying interest in the SDP. He described their responses as “diversionary tactics.”

“Nigerians are seeking a credible alternative, and the SDP, with its connection to the late Abiola, may appeal to many. However, its success will depend on its candidates and ability to foster a competitive democratic environment. The PDP, which should be the main opposition, is weakened by internal ambitions. The SDP’s emergence could reshape the political landscape,” Muse concluded.