Tinubu vs David Mark’s coalition

Coalition. That must be the hottest word in Nigerian politics at the moment. On the social platform X, formerly Twitter, for example, “coalition” was one of the top 20 topics trending in Nigeria throughout last week, and the top of six politics issues with the highest number of posts up to the time of this […]

Coalition. That must be the hottest word in Nigerian politics at the moment. On the social platform X, formerly Twitter, for example, “coalition” was one of the top 20 topics trending in Nigeria throughout last week, and the top of six politics issues with the highest number of posts up to the time of this writing on Saturday.

Indeed, most of the posts on all the other five trending issues in politics like “Tinubu”, “Wike”, “Atiku”, “Peter Obi”, and “Amaechi” were more or less in relation to the issue of “coalition”, rather than independently. Because social media trends tend to mirror, quite accurately, what people actually talk about in real life, this is significant and has several implications for President Bola Tinubu’s electoral strategy for 2027, even if we grant that in Nigeria specifically, only a fraction of the populace are politically active on social media platforms.

President Tinubu’s biggest headache is that he can hardly win re-election on his record of performance in office so far. Tinubu has quite a few good things to show, no doubt. His Student Loan Scheme for tertiary education could well become one of the most far-reaching social policies ever devised in this country. His exchange rate unification has vastly increased FAAC allocations to the states and local governments. The legal victory for the independence of local governments is surely one for the ages. The tax reform law, in its current form, could well turn out a masterpiece legislation. Overall insecurity has also reduced somewhat, or at least, has not got worse, even if the psychological effects on Nigerians persist.

All of these gains are undone, however, by the unprecedented inflation and general cost-of-living crises, which have seen the prices of basic goods and services—food, fuel, transport, medicines, house rent, electricity, and nearly everything else—rise several times their pre-June 2023 levels. And since these issues matter the most to Nigerians, the government will be unable to campaign on its own record so far. It is a hard sell to be talking about a 3% growth in the economy over the past year, when food is a dire struggle for millions.

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However, even an incumbent with a poor record can win re-election if the ruling party remains united, if the voting populace are split into warring factions, and if the opposition parties are in disarray or offer no viable platform for articulating voters’ frustrations. This is the Tinubu strategy for 2027. This broad strategy has been in operation over the past year, as the Tinubu government has sought to disrupt the main opposition parties by sabotaging them from within, or weaken them by inducing mass defections into the incumbent APC. At the same time, the Tinubu strategy also means causing confusion along ethnic and religious lines within large voting blocs like northern Nigeria. And until this new opposition coalition, this strategy appeared to have been working without hassles.

There are inherent problems with this overall strategy, however. One is the challenge of keeping the ruling party itself united. Since 1999, the strongest and most effective opposition has always come from within the ruling party itself, not from rival parties. The more over-bloated the ruling party, the greater the challenge of meeting the expectations of all key players, and therefore, the higher the chances of a fatal implosion within its own ranks, as in PDP during 2015.

Tinubu’s own high-handed and exceedingly personalistic approach to internal party politics could only be fast-tracking the APC’s slip towards the PDP 2015 road, if this is yet to manifest. Tinubu has long marginalised key players from the Buhari camp within his own party, several of whom are now leading figures in the opposition coalition. Moreover, Tinubu’s open humiliation of key actors within his own camp of the APC, from Vice President Kashim Shettima to Abdullahi Umar’s Ganduje, and the fact that he might have to favour the new defectors against some APC long-term loyalists have all opened cracks he might struggle to mend before the elections, leaving the ruling party vulnerable to implosion on several fronts.

This brings us to the second gap. The Tinubu strategy depends so much on demobilising the opposition parties and dividing the voters. But there was always no guarantee that either tactic will work till the end. There was always the possibility that the opposition figures will find a way to unite and mount a viable alternative platform, as we are now seeing over the past week. The revival of the African Democratic Congress (ADC) as the new home for opposition coalition is only a week in the making, but it is already a game changer of sorts.

More than that, by appointing former Senate President David Mark as interim head, possibly up to the end of the elections, the opposition coalition has given the clearest sign that they mean business. David Mark, I repeat, is serious business, and if anyone in Nigerian politics today could do the job, he can. David Mark is, first and foremost, a graduate of the IBB School, a group of men who, without doubt, laid the foundations of the modern Nigerian state, even if they failed with June 12. IBB himself was a consummate politician in military uniform, and David Mark was one of his outstanding disciples who learned the art well.

Mark has been at the forefront of Nigerian politics for 40 years, yet, no major scandal or blemish to his name. Unlike many Nigerian politicians, few muds thrown at him will stick: religious or sectionist bigotry, nor yet of corruption. This does not make Mark a saint, and I certainly don’t believe he is one. It does mean, however, that he must have plenty political skills up his sleeve, skills that have been put to use before with sterling success, and can be again. This is perhaps why the government’s official and unofficial spokespersons can resort to only attacking his age—an unpleasant irony—or statements he made aeons ago.

Most importantly, David Mark is one of Nigeria’s most able political leaders and adept unifiers. His two terms as President of the Senate, under two presidents of the republic, is without parallel for any occupants of that office. Throughout those eight years, he retained the respect and confidence of his colleagues in the Senate and the National Assembly, as well as of many in the executive branch and the nation more broadly. Throughout those eight years, too, there was not a major scandal in the Senate, a place known for scandals without end.

And Mark did all these through some of the most turbulent moments in our recent political history: the passing of President Yar’adua, the transition to President Jonathan, as well the tumultuous elections of 2011 and 2015. No wonder that when he returned to the Senate as a floor member between 2015 and 2023, he scarcely uttered a word, yet was revered by all colleagues.

None of these could have been easy to achieve in Nigerian politics, given the centripetal forces that go into such high office in this country, nor would it have been possible without personal abilities for political leadership. Anyone who can do all these could hold a political party together—possibly the most difficult and perilous job in Nigerian politics—and guide it through a consequential election.

I don’t know where David Mark will start with this serious task, but he might do worse than to begin with a change of name for the party, from African Democratic Congress (ADC) to African Democratic Coalition (ADC). This will signal a break both from the ruling APC and the old party they took over. Even more strategically, it will make official the use of the most popular and most potent name in Nigerian politics today, “coalition”. Whatever happens, all these developments are good for Nigerian democracy, and especially for the APC itself. Rather than a one-party or one-man show, let’s have a show for all. That is what makes a democracy.